Kang,
Forced or not (I tend toward not), we all need to look at the history available. I actually compared 55cm planes to 55 cm planes and also looked at the 2002, 2004, and 2006 55cm WC's that were held in the mine. The Kibbie WC's were long ago (more than 17 years) and used 65 cm planes. The recent Kibbie contest and US trials was not a competitive World Class event with the competitive WC pressures on all the contestants. And, Kibbie is a much different place in 2013 than it was in 1996. Finally, I also compared the two flight total times rather than single flight times. After all, the contest is won by the two flight total rather than just a single flight time.
Some of the 2013 contestants competed in one or more of the three Slanic 55cm WC's and their times are instructive. The 55cm class has improved greatly since the start in 2002 and their times in the mine show this. The times at Belgrade show this improvement from 2008, 2010, and 2012 (this is not all, by any means, because of just more experience flying at Belgrade) and the times in the mines next year will show the same improvement over past times. The very best fliers will master the mine quickly, I suspect, and will join the 40 minute club with their flights. Oh, by the way, Jim Richmond, the 55cm Slanic master, flew 36:15 at Slanic in 2002, the very first year for the 55cm WC's. I think you sell Brett short if you think Brett will fly just 36:10 in the mine. Brett flew nearly that at Urbana in very poor conditions this past August and with less than half the height of the mine.
Anyway, we will all know around next April Fools' Day.
LeoP
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <ykleetx_at_...> wrote:
LoL.
I think using Belgrade time and extrapolating to Slanic is forced. Some people fly better at Slanic because they have a longer history there, and these same folks may not have done well at Belgrade.
I suggest that we compare times between Kibbie and Slanic, where top fliers have flown in both places.
The best 65 cm time at Kibbie was 50:29 in 1996 by Steve Brown. The best 65 cm time at Slanic in a WC was 47:21 in 2000 by John Tipper.
Extrapolating the best 55 cm time at Kibbie by Brett Sanborn of 38:33 to Slanic would mean a best time of roughly 36:10.
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <leop@...> wrote:
I agree with Aki that the winning times will be over 80 minutes (remember that the score is the sum of the best two times). History is a good predictor of the future. Six of the top seven fliers at the March 2013 Otto Hints contest also flew in the 2012 World Championships at Belgrade. All of their mine times were better than their scores at Belgrade. The average increase (two flight total) was just under 7:35. Given that the top two scores at the 2012 WC were just over 76 and 75 minutes, one could predict a winning score of 82 to 83 minutes at the 2014 WC in the mine. Note that this analysis accounts for the colder temperatures in that actual mine times are compared to Belgrade times.
One caution concerns scores from the 2010 WC also held in Belgrade. Five of the above seven also competed in Belgrade in 2010. Their 2010 Belgrade times were all better than their 2012 Belgrade times. But the 2013 mine scores were still generally better than the 2010 WC times, although by a lesser amount with an average difference of a bit less than 3 minutes. So, a more conservative prediction for the winning score for the 2014 WC would be 78 to 79 minutes.
So, taking a balanced view allows one to split the difference and predict a winning score between 80 and 81 minutes. Given that Brett Sanborn has flown 42 minutes at Lakehurst, one might be comfortable adding another minute to predict a winning two flight total of 82 minutes for the 2014 WC. I also suspect that a two flight total in the 76 to 77 minute range will not make the podium.
LeoP
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <ykleetx@...> wrote:
Haha Haha!
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <82.jake_at_...> wrote:
I'm predicting a winning 2 flight total of 76:30. The high flight time will be just under 39.
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 10:22 AM, Nick Ray <lasray_at_... mailto:lasray@...> wrote:
Since we're getting a pool going. I'm going to say 38-39 minutes.
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 12:53 PM, <ykleetx_at_... mailto:ykleetx@...> wrote:
Who knows :) ?
I think 36+ minutes will be close to the winning time. Deszo flew 37.5 minutes in the 2013 Otto Hints contest, held in March.
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com mailto:Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <adanjo-373@...> wrote:
What do you guess the winning time at the saltmine?
Finally I could go flying Indoor and enjoyed F1D fixed pitch flights.
Today, I found the winning time must be much better than I had guesssed.
I did 1/5 and 1/6(!) motor flights and 1/6 motor time was 6:59 with 9.2m climb. x6= about 42mins with 55m climb.
The room temp was 16-17 degC, 50% humid. The air in the mine must be lower temp and higher humid, so the flight time in the mine must be decreased.
I had thought that top flyers might be able to do over 39mins, maybe 40mins.
But now I think top flyers must be able to do 40mins.
Good flying, Aki
Received on Tue Nov 19 2013 - 21:27:10 CET