LoL.
I think using Belgrade time and extrapolating to Slanic is forced. Some people fly better at Slanic because they have a longer history there, and these same folks may not have done well at Belgrade.
I suggest that we compare times between Kibbie and Slanic, where top fliers have flown in both places.
The best 65 cm time at Kibbie was 50:29 in 1996 by Steve Brown. The best 65 cm time at Slanic in a WC was 47:21 in 2000 by John Tipper.
Extrapolating the best 55 cm time at Kibbie by Brett Sanborn of 38:33 to Slanic would mean a best time of roughly 36:10.
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <leop@...> wrote:
I agree with Aki that the winning times will be over 80 minutes (remember that the score is the sum of the best two times). History is a good predictor of the future. Six of the top seven fliers at the March 2013 Otto Hints contest also flew in the 2012 World Championships at Belgrade. All of their mine times were better than their scores at Belgrade. The average increase (two flight total) was just under 7:35. Given that the top two scores at the 2012 WC were just over 76 and 75 minutes, one could predict a winning score of 82 to 83 minutes at the 2014 WC in the mine. Note that this analysis accounts for the colder temperatures in that actual mine times are compared to Belgrade times.
One caution concerns scores from the 2010 WC also held in Belgrade. Five of the above seven also competed in Belgrade in 2010. Their 2010 Belgrade times were all better than their 2012 Belgrade times. But the 2013 mine scores were still generally better than the 2010 WC times, although by a lesser amount with an average difference of a bit less than 3 minutes. So, a more conservative prediction for the winning score for the 2014 WC would be 78 to 79 minutes.
So, taking a balanced view allows one to split the difference and predict a winning score between 80 and 81 minutes. Given that Brett Sanborn has flown 42 minutes at Lakehurst, one might be comfortable adding another minute to predict a winning two flight total of 82 minutes for the 2014 WC. I also suspect that a two flight total in the 76 to 77 minute range will not make the podium.
LeoP
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <ykleetx_at_...> wrote:
Haha Haha!
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <82.jake@...> wrote:
I'm predicting a winning 2 flight total of 76:30. The high flight time will be just under 39.
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 10:22 AM, Nick Ray <lasray_at_... mailto:lasray@...> wrote:
Since we're getting a pool going. I'm going to say 38-39 minutes.
On Tue, Nov 19, 2013 at 12:53 PM, <ykleetx_at_... mailto:ykleetx@...> wrote:
Who knows :) ?
I think 36+ minutes will be close to the winning time. Deszo flew 37.5 minutes in the 2013 Otto Hints contest, held in March.
---In Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com mailto:Indoor_Construction_at_yahoogroups.com, <adanjo-373@...> wrote:
What do you guess the winning time at the saltmine?
Finally I could go flying Indoor and enjoyed F1D fixed pitch flights.
Today, I found the winning time must be much better than I had guesssed.
I did 1/5 and 1/6(!) motor flights and 1/6 motor time was 6:59 with 9.2m climb. x6= about 42mins with 55m climb.
The room temp was 16-17 degC, 50% humid. The air in the mine must be lower temp and higher humid, so the flight time in the mine must be decreased.
I had thought that top flyers might be able to do over 39mins, maybe 40mins.
But now I think top flyers must be able to do 40mins.
Good flying, Aki
Received on Tue Nov 19 2013 - 20:22:44 CET